Bedrosyan: What’s Next for Turkey?

The April 16 referendum in Turkey—to revise the constitution and grant expanded powers to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan—passed by a slim margin, as 51.3 percent of voters said “Yes” amid claims of significant illegal voting procedures.

A 2007 anti-government rally in Istanbul (Photo: Miguel Carminati)

Opposition parties have stated that the winning margin of 1.1 million votes was only achieved by the action of government election officials, allowing up to 2.5 million non-registered invalid “Yes” votes.

The election campaign itself was already deemed to be vastly unfair and uneven, with zero coverage and airtime allowed by the state controlled media and TV stations for the pro-Kurdish party, whose co-chairmen were in jail along with 13 other elected parliamentarians and thousands of party members for “supporting terrorism.”

Despite the crackdown on all propaganda of “No” supporters, the population of major cities, coastal regions, the Kurdish regions in the east and southeast, and generally urbanized and educated people, voted “No.” But the central regions of the country, generally less educated, rural people and the pro- Islamic masses, as well as thousands of Syrian Sunni refugees carried the day, with some help from the voting officials.

Nevertheless, by hook or crook, Erdogan— who now will have all executive, legislative, and judiciary powers in his control after abolishing the Prime Minister’s office and greatly reducing the role of the parliament—has already declared a victory. This concentration of power in one person has already been declared as the “death of democracy” in Turkey’ by European statesmen, who are now firmly convinced Turkey should never join the European Union.

In any case, trying to get into European Union is no longer an objective for Erdogan. He has called the European leaders Nazis and Crusaders because they prevented his ministers from campaigning to Turkish workers living in Europe.

One of Erdogan’s top priorities now is to bring back the death penalty, pushing Turkey further away from European norms. He wants the death penalty in order to execute the perpetrators of the failed coup of 2016. His need to avenge is apparent in every speech that he has made since that event, and put in effect in the continuing purge of hundreds of thousands of people fired from their jobs or tens of thousands of people put in jail, for suspicion of sympathizing with the alleged coup leader, exiled preacher Fethullah Gulen.

Although Erdogan supporters blindly voted to place dictatorial powers in his hand, one wonders what will happen when Erdogan starts losing his grip on power. The steady economic growth from the earlier days of his government, which resulted in higher living standards for the masses helping his popularity, has now halted, with massive losses in tourism, manufacturing, export, and trade. Record numbers are unemployed and deemed “unemployable” as either Gulen or Kurdish movement supporters. There are grumblings and potential splintering groups forming even in Erdogan’s own ruling party.

In the short term, Erdogan seems invincible, but consider these scenarios for the longer term—sooner or later, when he loses an election, his all powerful post may be occupied by an anti-Erdogan individual. Perhaps not probable now, but an elected president may be a secular Kemalist, who will go after Erdogan, and all he stands for, especially if he is empowered with the death penalty. Perhaps even less probable, an elected president may be a pro-Kurdish politician, who will have the powers to grant local autonomy to the Kurdish regions, even paving the path toward Kurdish independence.

And perhaps the least probable scenario: an elected president may be a hidden Islamized Armenian politician, who may single-handedly decide to start facing historical truths and stop the denial of the Armenian Genocide with all its consequences.

Never say never in politics…

Raffi Bedrosyan

Raffi Bedrosyan

Raffi Bedrosyan is a civil engineer, writer and a concert pianist, living in Toronto. Proceeds from his concerts and CDs have been donated to the construction of school, highways, and water and gas distribution projects in Armenia and Karabakh—projects in which he has also participated as a voluntary engineer. Bedrosyan was involved in organizing the Surp Giragos Diyarbakir/Dikranagerd Church reconstruction project. His many articles in English, Armenian and Turkish media deal with Turkish-Armenian issues, Islamized hidden Armenians and history of thousands of churches left behind in Turkey. He gave the first piano concert in the Surp Giragos Church since 1915, and again during the 2015 Genocide Centenary Commemoration. He is the founder of Project Rebirth, which helps Islamized Armenians return to their original Armenian roots, language and culture. He is the author of the book "Trauma and Resilience: Armenians in Turkey - hidden, not hidden, no longer hidden."
Raffi Bedrosyan

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4 Comments

  1. Armenians are the only people in the world who knew and warned that the true nature of Turkey was authoritarian and anti-human rights.

    The US, Europe, and Israel have always fooled themselves about Turkey (and Azerbaijan).

    Armenians warned them, but they would not listen.

    Now the Russians are cozying up to Turkey and Azerbaijan – two countries whose goal is to eventually destroy Russia.

    Putin is making a huge mistake, and Armenians will pay the price.

  2. Raffi, do you really think pigs might still fly . . .
    Erdogan has been rattling his anti-democratic, anti human rights for years, but his recent spate of vindictive megalomania has revealed him up for what he is: an authoritarian Islamist. He has been able to get away with his obnoxious behavior because of American’s fetishistic reliance on Turkey’s bases for staging wars in the middle east (incirlik air base being one). When America wakes up to itself, perhaps Erdogan, like Assad, will become relegated to the category of “dictator”.

  3. Turkey is arming itself at an aggressive rate with its own domestic weapons manufacturing. Turkey’s proclivities against its neighbors such as Greece, Cyprus, Syria, Iraq are now backed up by false public announcements about the Lausanne Treaty. The Treaty which defined the borders of modern Turkey states clearly that Turkey gives up all its rights on any islands more than three miles from the Asia Minor coastline, yet Erdogan and the opposition party debate out loud in parliament how to get back 139 (or 132 or just 18) islands supposedly illegally occupied by Greece! This nationalistic frenzy is not going to end well.

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