No one disagrees that we have significant problems in the Republic of Armenia (RoA). The disagreement is over what they are, how large they loom, and how to solve them.
From the perspective of local civic activists, the current crop of people in power is the problem, or, at least, the cause of the country’s problems. This is not least because economic power, held by the so-called oligarchs, is coupled with political power to such a degree that it creates suffocating conditions for the average citizen. I tend to agree with this portrayal.
So what is the solution? Is an imperfect, incomplete solution preferable to the current conditions? Can “civil society” circles accept such an interim step? Are they willing to make tough and, at least seemingly, unappetizing compromises? Can cooperation with other sectors of Armenian society be part of a gradual, multi-decade solution? Even talk about some approaches could generate enough incremental pressure on the offending forces to prompt them to rein in their abuses and begin a process of reform.
One of the key sectors of any country/society is the military. Though sworn to obey the established, legal, reigning government, defense, police, and other physical-power agencies have been known to “switch sides” to varying degrees. In any major change, upheaval, or revolution, the military plays a key role—either quashing the nascent movement or stepping aside to allow events to unfold.
In the case of the Russian Revolution, troops deserted the front lines and joined the demonstrators, ultimately toppling the czar. More recently, as part of the so-called “Arab Spring,” Egypt’s military used the street demonstrations as an opportunity to overthrow the sitting president. In Iran’s revolution, the military reportedly did not crush the demonstrations at the ruling shah’s behest. In a interesting twist, when a coup against the Soviet Union’s Gorbachev was attempted by his opponents, and people took to the streets to support him, the military sided with him rather than those who attempted the overthrow. I recall discussions that Levon Ter Petrosian’s departure from office was ultimately due to the power ministries being held by those who did not support his weak-kneed policies.
My question is, are civic activists in Armenia willing to work with a military that is also corrupt in the way of the oligarchs as well as in need of internal reform to prevent the needless, non-combat deaths and abuse? It is easy to imagine how such a linkage could temper, through fear of reprisal, the gluttonous appetites of the oligarchs, creating space for improvements in economic and social life. This is key to addressing the expatriation problem that, in the not too distant future, will come to hamper the ability of the RoA to function properly.
Conversely, is the military sector willing to step forward and build on its credibility (founded on its successes against Azerbaijan) by helping transform the country into a far more desirable place to live? This might come at the personal expense of some of the brass. But, they would become heroes.
This idea may seem radical, dangerous, or just plain fantasy. But, I’d argue it’s a far better option than having a country that ends up being depopulated and realizing the Turkic dream, since Ottoman times, of an “Armenia without Armenians,” or a revolution that so destabilizes the country that people die and Azerbaijan is able to make inroads where it is now utterly stymied—both diplomatically and militarily.
It would be interesting to see what people think of this approach, be they diasporans or homeland-dwellers (both those in the elites and those on the outs). Please, speak your mind.
Garen Yegparian
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Parev Garen, I always read your articles with interest. In your ‘Is interim good enough acceptable?’ you ask for feedback regarding your suggestion that ‘the military steps forward and transforms our Homeland’.
In a democracy the military defends the country from outside enemies. Changing that principal would be a step back in our Homeland’s although incomplete democracy. In your “short list’ of countries where the military played a role in an internal change, the outcome was always the establishment of dictatorships. Not only. You will also note once the military intervenes to resolve internal difficulties, they get the ‘habit’ of intervening. Example … Turkey.
In Armenia the march towards change, and hence more democracy, I hope will come, and I believe will come from civil society. To get there our role, the role of every Armenian in the homeland or in diaspora should be to ‘fight’ for change.
Let me suggest a different idea, which may seem to be “just plain fantasy” as Garen’s, but not as “dangerous”.
Sometimes, when you can’t enter the house through the door, you may use the window….My improvisation plan involves Artsakh, our second republic. For not bothering the readers with the details let me just lay out the plan of action….
So, for a time being, unlike to Garen Yegparian, I would leave the struggle for better Armenia to the citizens of Armenia, and instead I would concentrate on Artsakh, about which Garen seems to have forgotten in his judgments…..
Have you ever thought that Artsakh can accomodate more than a million population???? The territory of Artsakh is a third of Armenia, but population is around 150 thousands. Bearing in mind that the population of Armenia once was above three and half millions, Artsakh may easily room more than one million… Compared to Armenia, it is more free and more independent. ….
My plan is hinged on this factor….
I would suggest first to transform Artsakh peacefully to a prosperous happy democratic country by flooding it gradually with patriotic diasporan Armenians from all over the world (win-win option through quantity and quality), thus making it model not only for the current Armenia, but the Europe as well.
To achieve this goal we could create a “brain”center either in US or Europe (of economists, sociologists, politicians, etc) networking with all diaspora organizations with the purpose of creation of detailed action plan of repopulating Artsakh.
As a first step, for example, I would first invite the millionaires and entrepreneurs to settle down at specific regions according to their business ideas, desire, caliber…. and start setting up their businesses.. Naturally, diversification should be among priorities.
In the process, as these new created businesses would be ready to hire and accommodate workforce, the repatriation center would organize transportation and other assistance to re-settlers at different sites created by the first wave.
Meanwhile, the best specialists in diaspora could continue provide councelling help to executive power and legislators….
With increase of diversified industrial and agricultural strengths of the country , new layers of repatriates can arrive: scientists, artists, musicians, sportsmen, etc. All this orchestrated and organized by the main “brain center”:
If all steps are done scientifically exact, within 10-15 years one half million happy and proud Armenians will live in Artsakh.
How about Armenia??? Do you think the population of Armenia will just sit and watch what is going on in Artsakh???
Garen, many valid observations. the military is indeed an important player in any type of change (revolution). i would assume that it is difficult for the ones who are currently in uniform to speak against the regime but a growing number our veterans (azadamartiks) of the Artsakh War are speaking out and they too are and will be a crucial factor.
we should be aware that “Armenia without Armenians” has also been a Russian dream/policy from the Czarist to Soviet to Putinist eras.