Sassounian: The West Must Offer Armenia Incentives Rather than Decry its Ties with Russia

On Oct. 10, after lengthy heated debates, Armenia signed a treaty to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), composed of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The agreement goes into effect on Jan. 1, 2015, subject to ratification by the parliaments of the four countries. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have also expressed an interest in joining the EEU.

The intended objective of forming the Union is to facilitate the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor across member states, and to implement a coordinated policy in the energy, industrial, agricultural, and transport sectors.

Views of analysts on the merits of Armenia’s membership in the EEU diverge depending on whether they are proponents or opponents of the country’s leadership. The arguments advanced by opponents of the EEU include the possible loss of Armenia’s independence and isolation of Artsakh (Karabagh) through the establishment of customs checkpoints at the border. EEU proponents, on the other hand, stress Armenia’s geostrategic and economic interests. It remains to be seen which of these arguments prevail.

Meanwhile, there are some basic facts that are self-evident. Armenia has had long-standing and multifaceted links to Moscow going back to the Tsarist era, the Soviet Union, and today’s Russian Federation. It is imperative to recall that the livelihood of hundreds of thousands Armenian migrants in Russia will be impacted by Armenia’s EEU membership, in terms of their ability to reside and work in that country. Furthermore, Armenian businesses would be able to expand their small domestic market, exporting their products with favorable tax terms to over 100 million potential consumers in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Armenia would also serve as an easy gateway for foreign investors interested in entering the vast and complex EEU markets.
In the final analysis, three essential questions need to be raised on Armenia’s membership in the EEU:

1) Given the ongoing Artsakh conflict and Azerbaijan’s multi-billion dollar military spending spree, which country has sold and will continue to sell Armenia advanced weapons to mitigate the growing threat from Baku? Not the Unites States, Great Britain, or France, but Russia!

2) Which country can provide Armenia with desperately needed natural gas at any price, let alone at subsidized prices? Russia and Iran to a lesser extent through a small pipeline.

3) Since Russia is Armenia’s largest trading partner, it makes more economic sense to have favorable tax terms with that country than with Europe. Not joining the EEU would place Armenia at a serious tax disadvantage with devastating economic consequences.

While these are compelling reasons for Armenia’s decision to join the EEU, no one should conclude that Yerevan has to remain exclusively in the Russian economic zone. Clearly, it is in Armenia’s interest to develop multilateral ties with the rest of the world, including Western Europe, North America, Middle East, and Asia. Armenian officials have repeatedly stated their interest in developing closer economic, political, and even military relations with Western countries, but not at the expense of Armenia’s historical ties with Russia.

Meanwhile, it would be far more productive if Western countries, particularly the United States, rather than urging Armenian leaders to cut off vital relations with Russia, actually offered tax privileges and other incentives to their investors in Armenia, thus reducing Yerevan’s exclusive dependence on Russia. Similarly, U.S. criticism and warnings issued to Armenia for its commercial ties with Iran are manifestly counter-productive. It would be far more helpful if the Obama Administration could muster the courage to press Turkey and Azerbaijan into lifting their joint blockade of the Armenian Republic, which has been in effect for more than 20 years.

In the light of the foregoing existential strategic and economic realities, Western countries would be better served to use carrots rather than sticks to help steer Armenia toward a more balanced relationship between east and west.

 

Harut Sassounian

Harut Sassounian

California Courier Editor
Harut Sassounian is the publisher of The California Courier, a weekly newspaper based in Glendale, Calif. He is the president of the Armenia Artsakh Fund, a non-profit organization that has donated to Armenia and Artsakh one billion dollars of humanitarian aid, mostly medicines, since 1989 (including its predecessor, the United Armenian Fund). He has been decorated by the presidents of Armenia and Artsakh and the heads of the Armenian Apostolic and Catholic churches. He is also the recipient of the Ellis Island Medal of Honor.

23 Comments

  1. I don’t see western countries using the stick against Armenia because they don’t have the leverage that Russia has. Armenia does not depend on the west for natural gas or military ties. These are points of control that Russia has on Armenia that no-one else has!

    I don’t see anything in what the EU was doing to Armenia to join it in economically that can be seen as a stick.

    Also, I think the total trade between EU countries is at the same level or more with Russia. The latter may be the single largest country as a trade partner but the trade Armenia has with individual EU countries add up. The difference is that Russia can put pressure on Armenia that the EU and the US cannot.

    That said, this economic treaty better be worth it!

    • {“ I don’t see western countries using the stick against Armenia …”]

      Of course not: when you put on your Turkophile glasses, you cannot possibly see.

      You keep cyber bullying a great Armenian, and a great patriot.
      You keep doing this whenever Mr. Sassounian discusses a topic, any topic. This is emotional blackmail and it is disgusting.

      Your Turkophile bias is nauseating.
      In the [Sassounian: Turkish Denialists Fail to Block Genocide Speech at Australian Parliament] thread you viciously attacked Mr. Sassounian, again, and again. I will paste what one compatriot thought of your vile cyber bullying:

      {“Random, As the video above pointed out, unfortunately your sick and twisted fantasy cannot be satisfied here in spreading your disinformation effectively…”} (// June 20, 2014 at 1:08 pm //)

      Note: you were desperately attempting to curry Tukophile favour with who knows who, by incongruously claiming that Dr Lemkin did not base his coining of the word ‘Genocide’ in main part on AG (as Mr. Sassounian correctly asserted in the article).

      Your attacks on Mr. Sassounian are truly disgusting.
      I ask you again Random ‘Armenian’: what have you done for Armenia or Armenian causes to have given yourself license to continue cyber bullying a community leader and indisputable patriot like Mr. Sassounian.

      “Let us not assassinate this lad further, Random Senator. You have done enough. Have you no sense of decency sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?”

    • { After the US Embassy in Armenia issued a terse warning to Armenian businesses about the consequences of doing business with Russia in light of the most recent Western sanctions, the Russian Embassy fired back accusing the US of “threatening” Armenia.}
      http://asbarez.com/125526/us-warns-armenia-russia-fires-back/

      So let’s see:
      -the Neocon warmongers (Victoria “F___ EU” Nuland) organize a Neo-Nazi Banderista Putsch in Ukraine.
      -Round-and-round they go, and after their insane plans blow up in their faces, in desperation EU and US impose sanctions on Russia.
      -So Armenia, a completely innocent bystander, is next threatened by superpower US for the ‘sin’ of trying to survive economically.
      -The Neocon vipers have no human morals, of course : of course they do not threaten their criminal puppets Azerbaijan and Turkey for their illegal blockade of RoA. An illegal blockade of more than 20 years. An illegal blockade that is equivalent to an act of war.
      -But little land-locked Armenia is threatened. By US.

      {“The difference is that Russia can put pressure on Armenia that the EU and the US cannot.”}

      Apparently openly threatening Armenia is actually the same as _not_ putting pressure on Armenia in some sick and twisted Turkophile fantasy.

    • Yes Avery, just because someone on the Internet thought I was wrong about something must mean that I was wrong. Seriously?

      Mr. Sassounian and you and anyone else you think is somehow fighting the good fight are somehow above criticism.

      I never said the Armenian genocide was not involved in Lemkin coining the of the word genocide. My issue was how Sassounian worded it.

      “Gungor in his letter also badmouthed the distinguished jurist Raphael Lemkin who coined the term “genocide” based on his detailed studies of the extermination of Armenians by the Ottoman-Turkish government. ”

      Note that he does not say ” in main part ” as you phrase it. Mr Sassounian’s wording could come across as “based it on the Armenian genocide first or exclusively” to an odar. And the world’s understanding is that the word was developed because of the Holocaust.

      And please stop hiding behind patriotism. It’s not a shield against criticism.

      And also stop this accusations of “Turkophile”. That’s an ad hominem attack. It’s a cheap and dishonest argument:

      “you were desperately attempting to curry Tukophile favour with who knows who,”

      I’ve made my thoughts on that old genocide word thread very clear. Go reread them again.

    • Avery,

      Russia controls the flow of natural gas into Armenia as well as gasoline. They also own a ton of Armenia’s infrastructure because Armenia could not pay some of it’s debts to Russia. Russia is also the main source of Armenia’s weaponry. No one else can fill that space.

      These are existential concerns for Armenia and Russia’s fingers are on them. They can control Armenia any way they wish. The EU and the US do not have such *existential* points of control over Armenia.

      Do we not want an Armenia that is not be dependent like this on any single country? An Armenia that controls it’s own energy and security needs as much as possible?

      Ideally Armenia should have relations with a diverse group of countries, all competing to work with Armenia. But this is not where we are and it’s all a dream right now.

      Russia is in a position to give Artsakh to Azerbaijan, if they so choose. Armenia cannot do anything about. We are not back in the early 90’s guerrilla warfare situation. Azerbaijan has been arming itself with weapons sold to it by Russia. Armenia depends on the good graces of Russia to keep up. You are pretending that this situation does not exist or is not a factor.

      Russia may be Armenia’s savior in terms of national security right now, but are they benevolent? What is their intentions towards Artsakh? Do they see it as Armenian lands like we do?

      Even your beloved president voiced his concern about the weapons Russia has been selling to Azerbaijan!!!

    • @Random Armenian,
      I’d like to respond to a few comments you made:
      {“Russia controls the flow of natural gas into Armenia as well as gasoline. They also own a ton of Armenia’s infrastructure because Armenia could not pay some of it’s debts to Russia. Russia is also the main source of Armenia’s weaponry. No one else can fill that space.”}

      Firstly, Armenia doesn’t produce gas so it has to come from somewhere. Yes Russia provides Armenia with gas in the same way it provides nearly all of Europe with gas. The difference is that Armenia gets it for nearly half price thanks to its strategic partnership with Russia. Secondly, yes Russia owns most of Armenia’s soviet era infrastructure which is out-dated and needs hundreds of millions in investment just to bring up to acceptable standard. Armenia is much too poor and therefore someone has to do it. The Russians have modernized Armenia’s railway network, gas distribution system and nuclear reactor which all would have remained dilapidated and dangerous since no European country or US would touch any of it. Furthermore if war breaks out, Azerbaijan would have to answer to Russia if it targeted any of Armenia’s infrastructure. Third point is that Armenia has wide ranging military agreements with other countries. They have purchased missiles from China, German anti-tank weapons from Greece, sniper rifles from Serbia and I’m sure there’s a lot we don’t know. Also Poland and Armenia have just set up a joint defense company in Armenia manufacturing some light equipment. However it is true that most weapons do come from from Russia because most of them are extremely good quality and sold at domestic prices or free. So clearly Armenia is free to purchase weapons from whomever she chooses and does so pragmatically.

      There is no simplistic black and white situation for Armenia. The country is stuck between a rock and a hard place and must make careful decisions, often choosing the least worst scenario and so far our president has done brilliantly.

      And lastly, Armenia is too small, land-locked and surrounded by genocidal nations which are far richer and more powerful than she is. Under these circumstances, talking about full independence is idiotic. Better to choose the least worst scenario – strategic and economic integration with the only super power that has a vested interest in securing Armenia’s existence. We could milk this relationship if we had brains but judging by some of our people’s mentality, sadly we have a lot to go before we reach such political maturity.

    • Gurgen,

      I agree with your assessment of Armenia’s current situation. And believe me, I fully appreciate this situation and how much it limits Armenia’s choices.

      I follow Armenian news almost daily, and did read about the Polish manufacturing initiative. Armenia also signed a $100 million deal with Poland to upgrade the T-72 tanks with new electronics and engines. The hope is that this should bring those tanks to be on-par with the new T-90s Azerbaijan has been purchasing from Russia!

      I believe there is Russian-Armenian military cooperation projects in the works but I have no idea what the details are. Armenia simply cannot substitute all the Russian military hardware from other sources. And I would like to see a growth in Armenia’s military production capabilities, including with the help of Russia.

      If Armenia had access to the Black Sea, she would have been in a much better position to bargain with Russia. But alas that’s not the case. And Russia is calling the shots.

      And I agree that the Armenian leadership does not have enough of the smarts to make the best of this situation. Armenia could do better within the limits she is in.

      If we look at Turkey and Russia, when they emerged as new countries, they inherited the knowledge and experience of diplomacy and governing from their respective empires. Armenia emerged after centuries of subjugation, having to learn to run a country from basically scratch. The Armenian leadership is learning as they go.

      My issue in all this is I hear from some people how the West sucks and they are not trustworthy and we should not deal with them, but then I hear no critical take on Russia. Is Russia really on our side? Is Russia pro-Armenia? Do they understand how corrupt Russia is? And we’re going to sleep in the same economic bed as them?

    • Gurgen,

      If Serbia can manufacture sniper rifles and Greece anti-tank weapons, then so can Armenia. I would like to see production of such things in Armenia. This would employ Armenian engineers and works in Armenia and also keep the money in Armenia. It’s sad that we are talking about weapons but Armenia needs it.

      Armenia has SU-25 attack planes. They need spare parts to keep then running. Maybe some of these parts can be produced in Armenia.

  2. [1) Given the ongoing Artsakh conflict ……but Russia!
    2) Which country can provide Armenia with desperately needed natural gas at any price, let alone at subsidized prices? Russia and Iran to a lesser extent through a small pipeline.
    3) Since Russia is Armenia’s largest trading partner,…..Not joining the EEU would place Armenia at a serious tax disadvantage with devastating economic consequences.]

    Rational, learned reasoning, as usual, by one-and-only Mr. Sassounian.
    Apparently the Government of Armenia was ‘forced’ into making the only rational choice for the safety, security, and well being of RoA and NKR in the present geopolitical reality.

    How about that.

  3. A balanced article.
    Whether the West decries or not Armenia’s ties with Russia makes absolutely no dofference nor it has any tangible effects on Armenia, either politically or economically. It is only noise.
    The West has never been a reliable and trustworthy partner for Armenia.The West has done nothing to meaningfully help Armenia in any shape or form, other than empty, elusive promises and unending talk. Nothing tangible.
    Taking into consideration the current geopolitical realities, we have to face reality and accept and give some credit to Armenia’s leaders for being pragmatic and realistic in recognizing that to have stronger ties with Russia gives Armenia better odds of survival against all the threats that it faces and the immediate needs that it has.
    What is the alternative?
    Vart Adjemian

  4. Good article but I have one bone to pick. Mr. Sassounian writes:
    ” It would be far more helpful if the Obama Administration could muster the courage to press Turkey and Azerbaijan into lifting their joint blockade of the Armenian Republic, which has been in effect for more than 20 years”

    The US is too busy apologizing to Turkey for daring to state the obvious. I don’t see this fantasy happening any time soon. The Turkey of today is very much a US/NATO creation, thus the head can’t tell the leg not to follow it around. Armenia’s leaders made the best choice give the geopolitical realities and I commend them for it.

  5. Here’s an interesting article. It’s a rebuttal to Mr Sassounian’s article. Much longer and goes into more details comparing and contrasting the EU offering vs EEU.

    http://asbarez.com/127993/armenia%E2%80%99s-membership-in-the-eeu-raises-more-questions-than-it-answers/

    One thing that was missed I guess was that the EEU is more like joining Russia’s equivalent of the EU, while what the EU was offering was just a trade agreement.

    Here’s a choice quote:

    “On September 3rd, 2013, after Armenia completed nearly three years of negotiations with the European Union on an Association Agreement, which included years of European-funded legislative reforms, President Serzh Sarkisian was summoned to Moscow for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. After just an hour, Sarkisian emerged to announce a U-turn in Armenia’s policy, stating his intentions to pull out of the EU Association Agreement process, join the Russian-led Customs Union, and become a member of the eventual Eurasian Economic Union.”

    This is why a lot of people feel that Armenia was pressured into the EEU. And that’s easy to do given Armenia’s situation and dependence on Russia for energy and security.

    Armenia is now stuck with a less diverse group of markets with corrupt governments.

    I sincerely hope things improve. I really do and I hope Russia changes for the better as well, for the sake of Armenia.

    • Here’s another choice quote form the article:

      “Finally, an issue that has not yet been resolved is whether Armenia will be forced to establish customs check points at its border with Nagorno-Karabakh. Kazakhstan, having relayed concerns from its ally Azerbaijan, stated in May of this year that Armenia could only join the Eurasian Union through its internationally recognized border; in other words, without Karabakh. By contrast, the EU Association Agreement held no such pre-condition. Do we want to see a border check point between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabkh, manned not by Armenian and Karabakh soldiers but customs officials from the EEU? How will this impact the national security of Karabakh and Armenia? Moreover, why does the prerequisite of “internationally recognized borders” apply to Armenia with regards to Karabakh, but not to Russia with regards to Crimea? Even before Armenia’s membership takes effect, we are seeing the lack of fairness and equality in this union. ”

      This is a step backwards, if true! This means the old soviet borders, are emphasized, putting up a barrier between Armenia and Artsakh.

  6. (Random Armenian // October 17, 2014 at 6:05 pm //)
    (Random Armenian // October 17, 2014 at 6:09 pm //)

    I do not know who Mr DerGrigorian is, other than he lives in London.
    His CV at Asbarez says this: [Babken DerGrigorian is a researcher in political economy at the London School of Economics. His research focuses on economic development in Armenia.]

    Let me digest that for a full 5-minutes: OK, what the heck is ‘political economy’ and what does one research in ‘political economy’.
    Research in basket weaving I understand: but political economy ?
    Is that some kind of a joke I am not getting ?
    What does that phrase even mean ?

    I know that when someone has to resort to a Las Vegas style illusionist magic-show with highly impressive color charts and all that, to supposedly respond to Mr. Sassounian’s three incontestable concise assertions, then we know for certain they are trying to put a lipstick on a pig.
    These Soros Գրանտակերներ* who keep trying to convince RoA Armenians to cut their own throats, from the safety and comfort of their air-conditioned offices in the West, are becoming a joke.

    And I do not know Mr. Sassounian personally, but am quite familiar with who he is. Like me, he lives in SoCal.
    I see him frequently at community functions.
    I know he is a man of modest means: he does not get unlimited funds from Soros affiliated NGOs or other Neocon funding fronts to write Anti-RoA ‘scholarly’ articles.
    I know when the devastating earthquake hit Armenia just before Independence, Mr. Sassounian was one of the first few in Diaspora to spring to action.
    And that was some action.
    What _has_ Mr DerGrigorian done for Armenia ?
    Mr. Sassounian has selflessly served his people most of his adult life.
    Mr. Sassounian has been serving the Armenian people longer than Mr DerGrigorian has been alive.
    I know Mr. Sassounian to be a genuine patriot who cares deeply about RoA, NKR, Armenian people, Armenian causes.

    Mr. Sassounian does not need to be a researcher in some fake discipline called ‘political economy’ to know about economy and about politics.
    He has served in the Lincy Foundation and Armenia Fund: both have done tremendous work for RoA and NKR. You can actually see real economics at work, when new schools, housing, infrastructure, etc are built in Armenia and Artsakh with those funds.
    What _has_ Mr DerGrigorian done for Armenia ?

    Sorosofunded propagandists are dime a dozen.
    A 1000 of them combined can’t hold a candle to Mr. Sassounian’s incontestable patriotism and long service to his people.

    btw: does this guy also feast on lasagna and fine red wine… with an unusual collection of diverse and posh English friends in London ?

    Note: Regarding the Asbares article; read some of the readers’ comments under the article, in particular the one by ‘Gurgen’, to see how divorced-from-reality the whole color-coded dissertation is.
    http://asbarez.com/127993/armenia%E2%80%99s-membership-in-the-eeu-raises-more-questions-than-it-answers/

    —-
    * rough translation: those feeding at abundant Sorosogrant trough.

    • Avery,
      Where Mr Sassounian’s heart lies is not in question. This is nothing personal against Mr Sassounian. You always overblow things. You have a hard time accepting criticism, including criticism of people you admire greatly.

      The criticism are based on the points and arguments made, and nothing personal and not a question of patriotism.

    • Political economy, and international political economy* are both very real, very legitimate areas of study. I have trouble following your logic sometimes: you ask what that Armenian political economist has done for Armenia? Why does it matter? You can’t make an academic assessment of a major economic and political decision unless you actively serve said nation making the decision? I agree that abandoning Russia in favor of the EU would’ve been a potentially catastrophic decision. Armenia really CANNOT turn to the west- who still strongly support Turkey. I guess some Armenians think that as a Christian country the West should be in support of them, but A: the West doesn’t do politics based on religion, and B: I dont think the West and Armenia really share anything in common to the extent that they’d choose Armenia over Turkey. But it’s important to consider the implications of joining the EEU. A country already dependent of Russia in many respects takes another step towards Russia? Does this mean Armenia is sacrificing sovereignty for security and economic gains? I don’t know, I’m not saying it is, but this discussion is one that needs to be had rather than discrediting the opposing views as “propagandists.”

      *Said the guy who took an IPE course and hated it.

    • I agree with RVDVs assessment.

      The irony in all these debates is that Avery’s concerns about the consequences of economic relations with EU is no longer at play given Armenia is joining the EEU. However, my concerns and fears regarding joining the Russian dominated coalition are now at play. I guess we’ll see how this new economic experiment for Armenia plays out. I hope for the best, despite my deep concerns.

      The EU agreement did not appear to impact Armenian sovereignty as far as I can tell. It made no requirements of any checkpoints between Armenia and Artsakh.

      On top of all this, the Sarkisian administration is currently pursuing economic relations with Georgia, Iran *and* the EU even though these guys are not part of the EEU. This is also a good thing since Armenia should not be tied to one economic block given this intensely global economy we are living in. Even though I’m not crazy about Sarkissian and friends, given that they are doing essentially nothing about corruption in Armenia, they’re sending out signals and they want to supplement or balance economic and other relations with other countries.

      I believe the Sarkissian administration sees the benefits of diverse relations with other countries and coalitions and the need to balance things with Russian pressure to some degree, despite the critical importance of having Russia as an ally.

      Also, the EU was requiring legal reforms that are beneficial for Armenia as part of the EU economic deal. And the EU is still interested in relations with Armenia.

  7. Gurgen – did you mean to say “Godbless” or was “Godless” your subconscious speaking the truth.

    Avery (if that is your name) – your adamant defense of the Sargsyan regime and all those that defend it in Armenia and abroad makes you an equal traitor as the regime itself. anyone who states that joining the Russian led Customs Union either is utterly ignorant or a traitor, period.

    • It is the best option for Armenia. That comment you made about Godless or God bless was childish and silly, but I don’t expect much from someone who posts something like that.

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